A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reimagination of the science of prediction
In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned finance and risk experts at the top of their game describes a ground-breaking realignment of the connection between past experiences and future outcomes.
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The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it maps out an elegant prediction system based on a novel measure of statistical relevance.
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Drawing upon information theory and an obscure yet profound mathematical equivalence, the authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions.
Additionally, they introduce a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction's reliability, enabling researchers to fine tune their responses to specific predictions.
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