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A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reimagination of the science of prediction

In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned finance and risk experts at the top of their game describes a ground-breaking realignment of the connection between past experiences and future outcomes. 

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The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it maps out an elegant prediction system based on a novel measure of statistical relevance. 

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Drawing upon information theory and an obscure yet profound mathematical equivalence, the authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions. 

 

Additionally, they introduce a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction's reliability, enabling researchers to fine tune their responses to specific predictions. 

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With its strikingly fresh perspective grounded in scientific rigor, Prediction Revisited is a must-read for anyone who aspires to reach a new level of understanding and mastery of data-driven prediction. 

© 2024 by Megan Czasonis, Mark Kritzman, and David Turkington

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